Strange lift chart

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Please see the attached lift chart.  It is very strange... it starts below 2, rises sharply, and then curves downwards along the BEST line.  Can anyone provide some input on what that might mean?
 : rdi     Reply  

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It suggests to me that the customers your model predicts as being most likely to churn (or respond etc) actually don't.   Is this chart based upon actual subsequent results, or a training / testing data set?
If it is based upon actual results, then maybe your high scored customers have been contacted and as a result of your marketing activity you have changed their behaviour.  In the real world I would expect to see this and it validates the predictive analysis. 
I wouldn't expect to see this result with a control group or simple training / test dataset because it implies your most likely customers don't actually churn.  I'd only expect to see this result after action has been take to retain the high risk customers (and the chart suggests the activity has succeeded in preventing churn (or response etc).
Hope this helps

: TimManns    Reply

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